Emini Futures Trading / Internal Strength Weakest In 16 Months

by DeWayne Reeves

E-Mini S&P 500 needs some traction!

Another day for the E-Mini S&P 500 to retrace! Rumors spread about the Libyan President, Maummar Gaddafi, being shot. The Crude Oil has been trading inversely to the E-Mini S&P 500 as it hit levels around $103.00 on fears regarding the unrest in Libya as a threat to our oil supply. In reality, the daily supplies from Libya would be very small in comparison to our total usage.  Saudi Arabia came in with a statement to suggest that they would ramp up their production to compensate. The resources that the US government has to fulfill the demand of oil consumption are many. The inflated oil prices pressured the market severely as one of the major goals of our government would be to keep a check on inflation.  The US Dollar has succumbed to the pressure as investors have sought the safe-haven products such as the Swiss Franc. US President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner attempted to calm the fears. President Obama had stated that we should be able to “ride out” the unrest in Libya and that things should stabilize soon.

Our US Reports have been mixed!  They seem to point to a gradual recovery, but will potentially keep the QE in place.

Today’s US Reports:  US Initial Jobless Claims reported a drop of 22,000 below expectations.  Advanced Durable Goods orders rose 2.7%.  US New Home sales were down 12.6 % in January. 

Tomorrow, we look forward to US GDP at 7:30 AM CST where forecasts are coming in at 3.3%.  This would potentially be a slightly upward revision from the previous 3.2 %.

Between the Lines

During the webinar this afternoon we looked at the Dynamic Support and Resistance Indicator on the hourly chart. If you missed the webinar sponsored by Daniels Trading a video link will be available tomorrow. Here's a run through of the chart above -

#1) Dynamic Resistance printed @ 1319.75. Earliest entry was 1318.75. Market dropped 20 points.

#2) Dynamic Support printed @ 1297.25. Earliest entry was 1302.25. Market rallied 8 points.

#3) Dynamic Resistance printed @ 1310.25. Earliest entry was 1308.00. Market dropped 18 points.

#4) Dynamic Support printed @ 1294.25. Earliest entry was 1295.75. Market rallied 14 points.

#5) Dynamic Support @ 1294.25 was re-tested. Market rallied 13 points.

#6) Dynamic Resistance printed @ 1308.75.

Resistance (#6) printed during the webinar today after the close of the regular session @ 1308.75. Price however, was at 1302.50. We suggested allowing the market to trade higher before considering a short position. The distance between Resistance and Price was outside of our bounds for proper risk management. It is now 11:30 CST and price has indeed risen to exactly 1308.75 or the Dynamic Resistance level indicated 8 hours earlier. Shorting the market at this price does not guarantee a profitable trade. Price could in fact continue to rise. However, if one were to sell the market here, the definable risk is not only obvious, but for us it is quite acceptable. We have no way of knowing how the market will handle this price. We simply believe that based on the risk/reward scenario in front of us, it is certainly worth the price of admission.

What to expect tomorrow for the E-Mini S&P 500! Today’s continuation was predictable to a certain degree! The high was $1310.75 and the low $1292.50.  $1302.75 was the close.We remain in sell mode on the Daily Chart as long as we stay under $1339.50. Our comfort level or point of control is $1303.00.  After today’s selloff, we anticipate some bargain hunters with potential buying opportunities. We look for tomorrow’s potential range to be approximately $1320.00 - $1298.00.  This market lacks traction and simply needs the bulls to haul it up. One may range-trade the intra-day price action as seen on CFRN.net or wait for a break or break-out of the channel.   

Don’t count the days, make the days count.

Muhammad Ali

Best regards,

Leslie Burton

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