Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod 08/02/11
August 2, 2011 at 8:14 PM (QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(GLD)(SLV)
Happy Wi-Fi Day! True story... 8.02.11 get it? Never mind. Anyway it's a genuine geekified holiday and nerds are partying it up from Moscow to Modesto...
REboot your router and join the fun.
Today's Live Trading Room Recap
How To Scalp 1 Contract And Not Get Fat
It was brought to my attention some people who are trying to learn how to trade don't want to learn how to do it by scalping just 1 contract at a time. That actually works out quite well for our Partners cuz we don't teach that. What we teach is "how to trade". Period. We break it down to the lowest common denominator which is 1 contract. We then teach you a method which can be applied to any time frame. As your skills grow and you have actual profits in your account from trading, you can go as large as you like. In fact, using just 1 idea and 2 indicators, let me whip out my REALLY BIG CHART, and show you it's not about the size. The number of contracts and the time frame - daily, weekly, quarterly, are simply a matter of preference, risk tolerance and comfort level. If you asked me to teach you to swim, would you prefer we got into the shallow end of the pool or go straight to Gansbaai South Africa, swim with the sharks and skip the floaties. Fair enough, as soon as your check clears the bank and you sign this really big disclaimer we'll hit the beach. Anyway, my point is that if you can't make it with 1 you can't make it with 100. It's not even about the method, it's all about the math. And now, without any further adieu, the REALLY BIG CHART I promised.
;)
ShrinkageNow there you go. As Biggie Small's would say "click that mouse and blow it up". 2 days, 2 indicators, 1 really big idea. Are you stirred, shaken, or on the rocks after that ride? Let this serve as a warning to all who pass this way - If you want to go large coming out of the gate, why not give it to charity? The write off is a heck of a lot better and you just might do some good and not hate yourself in the morning. It's a thought.......
If you do choose to go the other way, once you've put together another stake... we'll be here. And you'll be welcome.
In other news
So how 'bout that sell the rumor then sell the fact stuff? Volatility. Steep hill. Oh and by the way 1246/1247 Nailed It! We have a potential reversal setting up on the hourly as I type. Let's zoom in and have a peek -
We spent 6 hours inside the lowest Weekly Trading Zone after the monster sell-off. We're now working on our 4th hour on the backside of the MA_1. We need 3 things to come together and set the stage for a minimum 20 point rally. If you don't know what those 3 things are, you haven't taken the Free Trial or you weren't paying attention. Either way, join us and we'll show you - FREE TRIAL!
Euro Traders
What an absolutely beautiful trade this turned out to be. Trading just price action I showed the entry last night and the obligatory cautionary warning. In just 7 hours the opportunity to scalp/nano-trade 115 ticks ran zone to zone. If you stuck around for the next 7 hours there was 115 ticks to scalp going the other way. If you were listening to the show today we suggested that it would be "possible" to scalp it back down again if you has some time to kill. So - Zone to Zone to Zone. 115 X 3 X 12.50 = $4,312.50 per 1 contract in less than 24 hours.
Is it reasonable to expect that anyone was skilled enough or bold enough to actually take those trades. Yes. Would the normal trader stay in for the full ride? No. Or take all 3 trades? No. Is past performance any guarantee of futures results? ABSOLUTELY NOT!
Will we continue to publish Euro Weekly Trading Zones for our Partners? Indeed we shall.
Remember, size and time are relative. What you do with our edge, is entirely up to you...
Instead of posting YM charts I'm going to take a shot at video. The Dow Emini today was just an absolute dream machine. If I can't get my inner Spielberg mojo working I'll be back later with stills.
E-Mini S&P 500: Cycle of fear steers market lower!
The economy and the markets cycle through history as every facet is related! Housing sales may boost pick-up truck sales. Employment translates often to consumer spending. One must remember that for most of the experiences we have in the marketplace, we have been there before. What is disappointing are expectations, we had forecasts calling for more growth and recovery the second half of the year. We averted default in the US, but the confidence in our leadership taking us to the edge perhaps cannot be reclaimed. The credit rating agencies; Fitch’s, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s have not threatened any downgrades, but continue to recant that the debt deal is only the first of many steps in the future to further stabilize the US economy. So far, we have proposed budget cuts of $2.1 trillion. IMF chief Christine Lagarde commented that the plan helped curtail some of the uncertainty in the markets. The reforms were not warmly welcomed by the market as we extended lower for the seventh day in a row. US Consumer Spending fell in June 0.2 for the first time in two years. The major concern is the GDP numbers. Friday is the monthly US Unemployment Report and many traders are looking for a more positive report! Private Sector Jobs are expected to be up around a 115,000 increase. We at least need to keep the US Unemployment at 9.2 .
We possibly could continue to trend lower Wednesday and Thursday! Perhaps with a slightly positive report Friday, we could retrace just before the weekend somewhat. It will be interesting to see what will boost us from the downgrade and recovery jitters to more of an opportunistic trading environment. Small steps forward still move up.
Wednesday, we have the US Factory Orders and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 9:00 AM CST.
Wednesday, what to expect! We are technically still in sell mode on the Daily Chart! Tomorrow, we anticipate an inside to lower day as the severe moves of today may continue. Today’s range was $1285.00 - $1246.75. The market settled at $1247.25. Our comfort zone or point of control for this market appears to be $1267.25. Our anticipated potential range for Wednesday’s trading could be $1268.50 - $1237.00. The market stays bearish below $1326.25.
Leslie Burton
Senior Market Strategist
for CFRN Partners
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