Trading Where No Trader Has Ever Traded Before
March 6, 2013 at 6:21 PM (QQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(GLD)(BAC)
Uncharted Waters | Trading Where The Market Has Never Been
Tuesday the Dow broke through to new all time highs. Until Tuesday, no one has ever been able to buy or sell the Dow Emini Futures (YM) @ 14270. No doubt corks were popping somewhere, but I believe most of the world realizes this is by no means a measure of how great things are. We've climbed a wall of worry to get here, using bad news as our stepping stones all the way to the top... now what?
My guess is we still need to see the S&P 500 put in historic new highs as well. The fact that the Dow arrived on the scene so much sooner than the S&P is a bit surprising. Once the S&P clears the top, then we can move on to the "What now?" scenario. Most of us remember the last time we put in new highs, it got pretty ugly, pretty quick. Back away from the chart just a bit and take a look at the Triple Top on a weekly or monthly chart. In fact, have a look at this one -
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S&P500 Cash Big Picture
A triple top by its very nature is a Bearish Reversal Pattern. A true triple-top formation will show declining volume at each peak. At the peaks you may see a volume spike often referred to as climax volume. Also, when support is broken at the bottom, expect increased volume as well. It took 5 years to put in that second peak and only 1 1/2 for it to evaporate.
Here is a chart of the Dow Cash Market. We are often asked if our indicators and methodology can be used to trade larger time frames. The answer is always the same - Yes!. Using the exact same methodology we use in the Live Trading Room on the 4 Tick Range Chart, when applied to this Monthly Chart we are handed 2 picture perfect trades. The first one ran for 4 years and the current one for 3 so far. Keep in mind, the only thing I changed was the time frame.
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Dow Cash Big Picture
One of our Partners emailed me a chart today that shows the volume profile I mentioned earlier. Let me say it again, we are approaching the third peak on seriously declining volume. This volume profile speaks volumes. It is ominous to say the least.
S&P 500 Cash Market With Volume Profile
Retirement Accounts And 401K's
Based on the chart above, I want to encourage you to call Burt Schlicter if you have a retirement account or 401k. If a major sell-off is coming, you want to protect yourself on the downside. You can move to cash and/or take other protective measures. Burt is well versed in all of this and licensed to give you as an individual, specific trading advice. Call Burt @ 866-928-3310 and let him know you read about him here on the blog or heard about him on the Daily Radio Broadcast. He will be happy to help you assess your current situation and discuss ways to protect yourself on the downside, while still renaming in a position to take advantage of any additional upside that may be left in the current bull run.
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